ERCOT Report Mulls Winter's Approach

Does ERCOT Report a Steady Winter?

While the latest ERCOT resource report shows Texans won't have much to lose sleep over, it does cover where the grid is at risk for problems.

Your air conditioner is probably running less these days. Cool overnight temps mean HVAC fans don’t kick on until mid-morning. But as winter nears, Texans may wonder what lies ahead for the electric grid. ERCOT just put out its November 2024 Monthly Outlook for Resource Adequacy report. This report forecasts demand and resource availability as temps begin to drop. So, let's see how the Texas power grid might fare this winter.

High Demand Despite Colder Weather

The ERCOT report reveals that even as cooler weather settles in, demand for power will remain high. Though winter coats will hang in the closet for another few weeks, early fall is known for its unpredictable temps. There’s always that one cold front each year that doesn’t stick around for the season. So, sudden heating needs can quickly spike demand. ERCOT predicts a peak load of 64,795 MW for November, with the highest demand expected around 7 p.m. each evening. 

To meet this demand, ERCOT plans to have 74,065 MW of total resources available under normal conditions. This includes an extra 869 MW in capacity from October. Of that, there's 538 MW from solar power and 281 MW from battery storage. So once again, green energy comes in clutch for Texas!

Report Covers ERCOT Resource Adequacy

The November outlook takes two approaches to managing resources: probabilistic modeling and deterministic scenarios. The former approach assesses risks that could trigger an Energy Emergency Alert (EEA) or even controlled outages. These risks are highest during the evening, as solar power drops off while demand peaks. The report shows a small chance of reserve shortages occurring at the highest risk hour of 7 p.m. This is when the chance for an EEA peaks at 8.65%.

On the other hand, the latter approach sees how much capacity ERCOT needs to maintain reserves. For November’s high-risk hours, ERCOT thinks it can normally provide up to 12,917 MW in operating reserves. This can rise to 14,983 MW if it taps emergency resources. So, that’s quite a bit of cushion! 

ERCOT Report Notes Risks to Grid

The ERCOT report notes several risks that could threaten the grid's stability next month. Because wind energy can vary greatly, low wind output remains a concern. Also, many thermal power units — such as coal, gas, and nuclear plants — often undergo maintenance in the fall. After all, this is the best time of year for a thermal plan to go offline. If these units face unexpected outages, the grid could become strained.

No matter what the weather does this winter, your best bet to save money is a new power plan. Shop from electric plans at http://www.texaselectricityratings.com/electric-rates to find the best plan for your home’s usage. You'll be prepared for January when your heater will work its hardest!